我国货运行业综合指数模型研究

Study on Comprehensive Index Model of China′s Freight Industry

为了掌握货运行业的运行发展态势,及时发现行业及区域发展不协调等短板和问题,从而为制定货运行业可持续协调发展政策以及为调整优化我国货运结构以适应经济高质量发展提供科学的决策依据,研究提出了货运行业综合指数这一概念及其计算模型。基于我国货运行业2008-2017年的历史数据,运用熵值法和因子分析法计算指标权重并进行比选,得到全国货运行业及东部、中部、西部和东北四大经济区货运行业基础设施、资源投入和运输产出3类运输指数。研究发现,2008-2017年综合货运指数总体呈增长趋势,但随着我国经济发展进入新常态,基础设施指数、资源投入指数在2014-2016年增速放缓,运输产出指数呈现下降趋势;运输产出指数的波动领先于国内生产总值(Gross Domestic Product, GDP)4个季度,表明我国货运行业综合指数与GDP具有时差相关关系。

In order to grasp the operation and development trend of the freight industry,find out the drawbacks and problems such as inharmonious phenomena in industrial or regional development,thus some scientific basis for decision-making could be proposed for formulating sustainable and coordinated development policy of freight industry as well as adjusting and optimizing China′s freight structure to adapt to the high-quality economic development,the concept and calculation model of the comprehensive index of freight industry were put forward.Based on the historical data of China′s freight industry in the period from 2008 to 2017,using entropy method and factor analysis to calculate the index weight and make comparison and selection,three comprehensive indexes were extracted,which were infrastructure,resource input and transport output of national freight industry and freight industry in four major economic zones including the eastern,central,western and northeastern region of China.The results show that the comprehensive index of freight shows a growth trend from 2008 to 2017 in general,but with the new normal state of the economy,infrastructure index and resource input index′s growth slow down,the output index even turn to decline in 2014-2016.In addition,the analysis results about the periodic fluctuation of comprehensive index of freight and the Gross Domestic Product(GDP)show that the transport output index is ahead of the social economic development with four quarters,the comprehensive index of freight industry has a time difference correlation relationship with GDP.