经济增长、收入分配和社会福利与救助支出的长期均衡关系——基于协整分析与Granger因果检验

Long-term Equilibrium Relationship between Economic Growth,Income Distribution and Social Welfare and Social Assistance Expenditure—Based on Cointegration Analysis and Granger Causality Test

文章使用1978年至2017年时间序列数据,采用向量误差修正模型(VECM)研究了经济增长、收入分配和社会福利与社会救助支出的长期均衡关系。结果显示:经济增长与城乡收入差距存在正向关系,其扩大效应为0.2091,社会福利和社会救助支出与城乡收入差距存在负向关系,其缩小效应为-0.0573。这种长期均衡关系可以有效调整短期非均衡关系,对城乡收入差距的调节效应为-0.3748;对经济增长的调节效应为0.2802。可见,改革开放以来,社会福利与社会救助支出在缩小收入差距、促进经济增长方面具有显著的调节效应,并且这种影响是长期存在的。

Using the vector error correction model(VECM)and the time series data from 1978 to 2017 to analysis the long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth,income distribution,and social welfare and social assistance expenditure.The results show that there is a positive relationship between economic growth and income gap.The expansion effect is 0.2091.There is a negative relationship between social welfare and bailout expenditure and income gap,and the reduction effect is-0.0573.In addition,this long-term equilibrium relationship can effectively adjust the short-term non-equilibrium relationship,the adjustment effect on the income gap is-0.3748,on economic growth is 0.2802.It can be seen that since the reform and opening up,social welfare and social assistance expenditures have had a significant regulatory effect in narrowing the income gap and promoting economic growth,and this effect has long existed.