基于森林生态安全的林业产业结构优化战略仿真分析

Simulation Analysis of Forestry Industrial Structure Optimization Based on Forest Ecological Security

基于森林生态安全视角,从经济、社会、资源、环境四个方面出发构造林业产业结构系统,通过分析子系统间的相互作用机理,运用系统动力学方法构建了基于森林生态安全的林业产业结构优化模型,并以黑龙江省为例进行实证研究。根据黑龙江省实际设计了保持现状模式(方案一)、森林生态安全维护模式(方案二)、林业产业结构优化模式(方案三)和基于森林生态安全的林业产业结构优化模式(方案四)4种仿真方案,通过模拟仿真得到仿真结果。结果表明:从长远来看,方案一和方案三不利于森林生态安全的改善,方案二为维护森林生态安全付出了巨大的经济代价,方案四有利于森林生态安全与林业产业的协调发展,是相对理想的发展模式。

From the perspective of forest ecological security,this paper constructs the forestry industrial structure system from the aspects of economy,society,resources and environment.By analyzing the interaction mechanism between subsystems,the system dynamics method is used to construct the forestry industry structure optimization model based on forest ecological security.We take Heilongjiang as an example for the empirical research.According to the actual situation of Heilongjiang,four schemes of maintaining the status quo model(scheme one),forest ecological security maintenance model(scheme two),forestry industrial structure optimization model(scheme three)and forestry industrial structure optimization model based on forest ecological security(scheme four)were designed,and the results are obtained by simulation.The results show that in the long run,schemes one and three are not conducive to the improvement of forest ecological security;Scheme two has paid a huge economic cost for maintaining forest ecological security;Scheme four is conducive to the coordinated development of forest ecological security and forestry economy and it is a relatively ideal development model.