人口负增长与劳动就业的关系

Negative Population Growth,Labor Supply and Employment

利用联合国和国际劳工组织相关数据分析发现,人口负增长存在明显的年龄(组)传导过程,大多数国家(地区)遵循0~14岁人口负增长-15~59岁人口负增长-总人口负增长的发展轨迹。人口负增长与劳动力供给、劳动参与率、失业率等指标的关系表现出渐行渐远的特征。中国劳动年龄人口和劳动力已经开始负增长,根据预测,中国总人口将在2027~2029年期间进入负增长。负增长阶段中国有望保持劳动力缓慢下降,但仍会出现周期性失业和结构性失业问题。建议消除生育障碍,提高生育水平;延迟退休年龄,提高劳动参与率,挖掘劳动力供给潜力;把握好经济结构转型节奏及应对结构转型的就业冲击;大力发展教育和培训以提高劳动者素质和促进劳动参与。

Based on the data of the United Nations and the International Labor Organization, this article explores the relationship between negative population growth and labor force participation. There is a significant age(group) transmission process of negative population growth. Most countries and regions follow the development track of negative growth from population aged 0-14 to population aged 15-59, and then to total population. The relationship between negative population growth and labor force, labor force participation rate, and unemployment rate tends to be more detached. The negative growth of population aged 15-59 and labor force in China has already begun. The total population of China will step into the negative growth stage between 2027 and 2029, in which a slow decline in labor force is expected, but there will still be problems such as cyclical unemployment and structural unemployment. The article concludes with discussion on policy implications regarding raising fertility, delaying retirement age, grasping the rhythm of economic structural transformation and its employment shock, and enhancing quality of laborers and promoting the labor force participation.