新冠病毒肺炎“大流行”下的劳动力市场反应与政策

Labor Market Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic and Employment Policy

新冠病毒肺炎已经成为百年一遇的“大流行”疫情。此次疫情对中国经济和劳动力市场产生了严重的冲击,突出体现为城镇调查失业率的飙升。基于求人倍率、调查失业率、核心通胀等数据的综合分析表明,当前的失业已经具有明显的周期性失业的特征。劳动力市场政策也应从以往致力于治理结构性失业,转向对短期的周期性失业做出反应。考虑到治理周期性的时效性,简便的收入支持计划既可以解决民生问题,也可以通过刺激消费、弥补需求缺口,起到扩大就业的效果。

COVID-19 virus has already caused a once-in-a-century pandemic.The pandemic has severe negative impacts on China s economy and labor market,as evidenced by a sudden increase of urban unemployment.Focusing on the ratio of job vacancy to job seekers,urban unemployment rate,and core CPI,the analysis reveals that the current unemployment has already displayed strong cyclical features.Therefore,focuses of labor market policy should be switched from dealing with structural unemployment to prompt responses to cyclical unemployment.Given the urgency to curb cyclical unemployment,a universal basic income program could be applied to sustain the livelihood of low-income people,thereby increasing employment through stimulus of consumption and bridging the gap of aggregate demand.