利率市场化与企业全要素生产率——一项基于中国人民银行取消贷款利率上限的准自然实验

Interest Rate Liberalization and Total Factor Productivity of Enterprises:Based on the Quasi-natural Experiment of Cancellation of Upper Limits for Loan Interest Rate by PBoC

我国经济正由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段。经济的高质量可持续发展通过粗放型增长方式难以实现,而必须转向依托全要素生产率提升的内生增长模式。以利率市场化手段优化金融资源配置对提高全要素生产率具有十分重要的影响。基于中国人民银行取消贷款利率上限的准自然实验,选取中国工业企业数据,运用双重差分法考察贷款利率上限放开对企业全要素生产率的影响,同时对理论机制进行探讨。结果显示:贷款利率上限放开能够显著提升企业全要素生产率。机制检验表明:贷款利率上限放开可通过缓解融资约束提升企业全要素生产率。因此未来中国应进一步加快利率市场化进程,以优化金融资源配置,进而促进全要素生产率的持续提升。

China s economy is shifting from a stage of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development,it is difficult to keep a sustainable and stable economic growth by relying on extensive development model,bringing the necessity to an endogenous growth model relying on total factor productivity(TFP).Therefore,optimizing the allocation of financial resources by means of marketization of interest rates has a very important impact on TFP.Based on the quasi-natural experiment of cancellation of upper limits for loan interest rate by the People s Bank of China,this thesis selects Chinese enterprise data and uses difference-in-difference(DID)method to study how the cancellation of upper limits for loan interest rate affected the TFP of enterprises and also to explore the mechanism behind it.The result showed that the cancellation of upper limits for loan interest rate could significantly enhance the TFP of enterprises.Further test results showed that,upper limits for loan interest rate could affect the TFP of enterprises by easing financial constraints.The findings provide important suggestions of accelerating the process of interest rate liberalization and optimizing financial resource allocation so as to promote the continuous improvement of TFP.