农产品价格波动对政策性农业保险的影响研究——基于主体博弈模型

The Impact of Price Fluctuation of Agricultural Products on Policy-oriented Agricultural Insurance:An Analysis Based on the Subject Game Model

政策性农业保险作为中国发展三农事业的重要措施,因其独特的风险属性和潜在的利益冲突受到学术界的关注。本文基于主体博弈模型,引入农产品价格波动因素,分析农产品价格波动如何对政策性农业保险主体行为产生影响。研究发现:引入农产品价格波动变量使政策性农业保险主体博弈均衡象限发生了变化;政府补贴为农户和保险公司应对农产品价格波动提供了重要保障。基于2007—2017年政策性农业保险省级面板数据,建立PVAR模型实证判别农产品价格波动对政策性农业保险的影响。研究发现:农产品价格波动对政策性农业保险需求存在促进作用,对农户增收短期内有负向冲击,而未来3-6期则将产生正向效应;农产品价格波动、农户收入与政策性农业保险需求存在动态交互效应。本文的研究结论,能够为防范农产品价格风险和发展政策性农业保险提供科学依据和数据支持。

As an important measure to promote the development of agriculture,rural areas and farmers in China,policy-oriented agricultural insurance has attracted the attention of the academic circles because of its unique risk attributes and potential conflicts of interest.Based on the subject game model,this article introduces the factors of price fluctuation of agricultural products,and analyzes how the price fluctuation of agricultural products affects the behavior of policy-oriented agricultural insurance subject.It finds that the introduction of agricultural products price fluctuation variable changes the game equilibrium quadrant of policy-oriented agricultural insurance,and government subsidies provide an important guarantee for farmers and insurance companies to deal with price fluctuation of agricultural products.Based on the provincial panel data of policy-oriented agricultural insurance from 2007 to 2017,this study establishes a PVAR model to identify the impact of price fluctuation of agricultural products on policy-oriented agricultural insurance.The results show that the price fluctuation of agricultural products promotes the demand of policy-oriented agricultural insurance and has a negative impact on the increase of farmers’income in the short term,but it will have a positive effect in the future.The price fluctuation of agricultural products,farmers’income and the demand of policy-oriented agricultural insurance generate a dynamic interaction effect.The conclusions can provide a scientific basis and data support for preventing price risk of agricultural products and developing policy-oriented agricultural insurance.