陕西省HFRS疫情时空分异特征及影响要素研究

Spatiotemporal Variations and Influencing Factors of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Shaanxi Province

肾综合征出血热(HFRS)主要是由鼠类携带传播汉坦病毒而引起的一类自然疫源性传染病,严重危害着人类健康。陕西省是我国HFRS疫情最严重的省份之一,发病率居全国前列,研究其疫情时空分异和影响要素对指导当地疫情防控具有重要意义。本研究基于2005-2017年县区尺度HFRS发病率数据,采用空间自相关、热点分析等方法分析陕西省疫情时空分异特征,并利用地理探测器探究影响疫情的主要自然环境和社会经济要素。结果表明:2005-2017年陕西省HFRS发病率明显高于全国水平,同时呈现明显的时间波动和空间聚集,平原面积占比、建设用地面积占比、人口密度等因素可以解释约20%的HFRS疫情空间分异;关中平原聚集了陕西省90%以上的高发病县区,其疫情亦呈现明显的空间分异性,主要受降水量、NDVI、土地利用类型等因素的影响。由此可知,高发病县区聚集、且自然环境和社会经济条件明显不同的关中平原是陕西省HFRS疫情流行的关键地区。因此,建议陕西省HFRS疫情防控应当重点关注降水量、植被状况以及土地利用类型,特别是在土地城镇化水平较高、人口密度较大的关中平原进行有效的防控干预。

Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome(HFRS)is a rodent-borne endemic disease caused by Hantavirus,which poses an increasingly serious threat to public health,especially in China.In this country,Shaanxi Province is one of the top regions with the highest HFRS incidence in the past years.It is of great importance to explore the potential influences on the spatiotemporal variations of HFRS epidemics across this province,which would provide useful clues for local authorities making targeted interventions on this disease.The county-level HFRS incidence rates during 2005-2017,as well as some potential natural and socioeconomic variables,were collected and analyzed by using spatial auto-correlation and hot-spot analysis tools as well as a Geodetector tool to explore the spatiotemporal relationships between the incidence rates and the potential variables.The HFRS epidemics in Shaanxi Province were obviously higher than the national level and presented clear temporal fluctuation and spatial clustering at the county scale.More than 90%of the counties with relatively high HFRS incidence rates concentrated in the Guanzhong Plain where obvious spatial heterogeneity was also observed.Some variables including the percentage of plain area and construction land,and population density separately accounted for about 20%of spatial variations of the county-level epidemic across the whole province.By comparison,the spatial pattern of this epidemic in the Guanzhong Plain with no obvious socioeconomic differences was mainly affected by precipitation,normalized difference vegetation index,and land-use types.Thus,the Guanzhong Plain with both spatially clustering higher incidence rates and obviously differentiated natural and socioeconomic conditions was the crucial region of the HFRS prevalence across Shaanxi Province.We suggest that precipitation,vegetation conditions,and land-use types should be heavily considered by local authorities for making effective interventions on this disease across Shaanxi Province,especially in the Guanzhong Plain with relatively high land urbanization and population density.