货币化稳增长、土地财政与实体经济挤出--关于新冠疫情背景下稳增长的政策建议

Monetization to Stabilize Growth,Land Finance and Real Economy Crowding Out:Policy Recommendations on Stabilizing Growth in the Context of COVID-19

分析发现确实存在房地产对实体经济的信贷挤出,同时房价上涨对制造业行业确实带来了一定负面影响,但是这种影响的根本原因是制造业等实体经济产能过剩、经营效率偏低造成信贷风险巨大。单纯依靠调控房价,并不能实现经济脱虚向实,甚至有可能恶化经济基础,同时对民营工业再一次形成压力。基于此,我们认为下一步稳增长的政策需要平衡长短期矛盾,维持货币宽松、保持房地产稳定,并从优化资源投向所有制、合理制定基础设施建设规模角度,防止出现资源浪费。

It is found that there is a real estate credit squeeze out of the real economy,and the rise of house prices does have a certain negative impact on the manufacturing industry,but the root cause of this impact is that the excess capacity and low operating efficiency of the manufacturing industry and other real economy cause huge credit risk.It is impossible for the economy to move from the virtual to the real,or even worsen the economic foundation by simply adjusting and controlling the house price.At the same time,it will form pressure on the private industry again.Based on this,we believe that the policy of stable growth in the next step needs to balance the long-term and short-term contradictions,maintain monetary easing,maintain the stability of real estate,and prevent resource waste from the perspective of optimizing resource investment to ownership and reasonably formulating the scale of infrastructure construction.