基于蒙特卡洛法的建筑运维风险评估方法研究

Risk Assessment of Buildings at Service Stage Based on Monte Carlo Method

以上海市建筑科学研究院长期收集的事故案例为基础,构建建筑运维阶段的事故案例库,并基于案例库得到风险评价体系和风险系数,建立建筑运维风险的蒙特卡洛模型.该模型基于概率分布原理,在计算机上模拟实际概率,然后加以统计处理.与单纯的数学方法相比,它可以很好地直接处理每一个风险因素的不确定性,并把这种不确定性在风险方面的影响以概率分布的形式表现出来.与模糊数学方法相比,该方法有一定的数学统计基础,减少了主观性,可以得到更加精确、稳定的结果.

Based on the accident cases collected by Shanghai Key Laboratory of Engineering Structure Safety,this paper establishes a risk database of buildings at service stage.Through analysis of this database,the risk evaluation system and risk coefficient are obtained,and the Monte Carlo model is established.The model is based on mathematical principles,simulates the actual probability on a computer,and then carries out statistical processing.Compared with the simple mathematical method,it can directly deal with the uncertainty of each risk factor,and the impact of this uncertainty in risk is expressed in the form of probability distribution.Compared with the fuzzy mathematics method,it has a certain mathematical statistics foundation,and can obtain more accurate and stable results with less subjectivity.