考虑黏温系数的蒸汽吞吐递减率多元回归模型

Multiple Regression Model for Predicting Steam StimulationDecline Rate Under the Influence of Viscosity Coefficient

为适应海上稠油热采措施的计划性要求,需要开展蒸汽吞吐周期有效期及递减率预测研究。目前已有的蒸汽吞吐递减率预测模型仅考虑了油藏静态和注蒸汽动态参数的影响,并未考虑稠油流体黏温系数的影响,造成具有不同流变特征的稠油油田蒸汽吞吐递减率预测准确率差异大。针对胶质沥青质含量各异的稠油流变性差异大的问题,正交设计产生的样本集综合考虑黏温系数、油藏静态和注蒸汽动态等参数的影响,基于多元非线性回归分析,建立考虑黏温系数影响的蒸汽吞吐递减率预测多元回归新模型。实例应用表明,新模型预测不同油田蒸汽吞吐递减率的预测精度都很高,能够满足不同稠油油田蒸汽吞吐产量递减预测的需要。该模型为蒸汽吞吐的方案研究、效果跟踪评价和产量规划等工作提供了快速、准确的递减率预测方法。

A research was carried out on the prediction of production decline rate and of validity period of steam stimulation cycle,to meet the requirement of Planning for Thermal Recovery Measures of Offshore Heavy Oil.At present,the prediction model of production decline rate of steam stimulation considers reservoir static parameters and dynamic parameters of steam injection,but not the viscosity-temperature coefficient of heavy oil.Such model gives poor accuracy in the prediction for heavy oil fields with oil exhibiting different rheological characteristics.In view of the very different rheological characteristics of heavy oils with varying colloidal and asphaltene content,the sample set generated by orthogonal design considers the influence of viscosity-temperature coefficient,reservoir static parameters and dynamic parameters of steam injection.A new model is then set up to predict production decline rate of steam stimulation based on Multiple Non-linear Regression analysis making use of the above parameters,including viscosity coefficient.From a real case application,it is demonstrated that the new model predicts accurately the production decline rate of steam stimulation of heavy oil reservoir,meeting the planning requirements of predicting production decline rate of different heavy oil fields.The new model provides a fast and accurate prediction for production decline rate of steam stimulation study,monitoring of steam stimulation effect and oil production planning.