旱作农业区农户气候变化感知与适应行为的多样性

The farmers′perception of climate change and diversity of adaptive behavior in dry farming region

通过对陕北地区17个县(区、市)23个乡(镇)80个村903位农户开展问卷调查和深度访谈,构建多层感知器(MLP)模型及适应行为多样性指数,分析农户的气候变化影响感知及重要性影响因素、农户应对气候变化采取的多样性适应行为及其与感知和生计资本之间的相互关系。结果表明:气候变化影响农户正常农业生产与生活,导致病虫害增加,作物产量下降;文化程度、居住时间、赶集频率和看电视频率是影响农户气候变化影响感知的重要因素。当地的经济发展水平影响农户适应行为多样性;感知强度影响适应行为多样性;生计资本与适应行为多样指数呈显著性正向相关关系。

Through a questionnaire survey and in-depth interviews with 903 farmers in 80 villages of 23 townships(towns)in 17 counties(districts and cities)in northern Shaanxi,a multi-layer perceptron(MLP)model and adaptive behavior diversity index are constructed to analyze farmers′perception of climate change and its influencing factors,farmers′adaptive behaviors of climate change and their relationship with perception and livelihood capital.The results show that climate change affects farmers′normal agricultural production and life,which leading to an increase in pests and diseases and a decline in crop yields.Education level,living time,frequecy of going to market and watching TV are important factors affecting farmers′perception of climate change.The economic basis affects the diversity of farmers′adaptive behavior.The perceived intensity affects the diversity of adaptive behavior.There is a significant positive correlation between the livelihood capital and the adaptive behavior diversity index.