海上丝路背景下南亚地缘格局的解构与再建构——基于印巴均势视角

On the restructuring of geopolitics in South Asia under the background of Maritime Silk Road--From perspective of strategic balance between India and Pakistan

印巴战略平衡是南亚地区格局形成的基础,是影响中国海上丝路地缘安全最重要的变量之一。进入21世纪以来,由于印度和巴基斯坦在经济和军事尤其是核力量方面持续不平衡增长以及美国南亚战略发生转向,持续多年的南亚地区均势走向瓦解,以中美印大三角为核心的弹性均势体系正逐步取代过去中印巴和美印巴并行的双三角体系。一个缺少制衡且向西方倾斜的印度,可能会给中国印度洋海上油路安全以及西南边疆稳定带来更多不确定性;巴基斯坦的战略处境更加困难,其作为中国与穆斯林世界桥梁、屏蔽极端势力向新疆渗透的能力会有所削弱。未来中国应积极参与南亚地区再平衡建设,在利用经济合作增进地区互信的同时,还应强化对巴基斯坦的经济和军事支持,并在南亚次大陆周边寻找更多战略立足点,谨防在西太平洋和北印度洋两个方向被美日印联合压制,力求把海上丝路沿线地缘安全风险降到最小。

The balance of power between India and Pakistan is the foundation of the pattern of geopolitics in South Asia and the security factors in Maritime Silk Road.Due to the rise of India and the American policy change the balance of power in South Asia began to collapse after entering the 21 st century,during which the China-US-India triangle is replacing China-India-Pakistan triangle and US-India-Pakistan triangle.In the future,an unbound and pro-west India may bring forward more uncertainty to China’s oil passageway and the security in Tibet.Moreover,because of Pakistan’s more difficult strategic position,the ability of shielding Xinjiang from Islamic extremist forces will weaken.In this situation,China should actively participate in the reconstruction of regional strategy pattern,which including:1)To promote mutual trust with India by economic means.2)To adopt offshore balance strategy to hedge the geopolitical risk by helping Pakistan in economic development and military building.3)To look for strategic foothold in the northern Indian Ocean.Only do all of these China will escape a converging attack by America,Japan and India in both directions of the Pacific and Indian Ocean.