城镇化对碳排放效率的影响机制研究——基于全球118个国家面板数据的实证分析

Research on the influencing mechanism of urbanization on carbon emission efficiency--Based on an empirical study of 118 countries

合理有序推进城镇化进程和发展低碳经济是当前全球许多国家面临的重要难题。研究基于2009-2016年全球118个国家的面板数据,利用STIRPAT模型探究了整体样本及不同等级城镇化水平国家城镇化发展对碳排放效率的影响机理。研究表明:(1)2009-2016年,研究样本碳排放效率的空间分异特征较为明显,碳排放效率较高的国家主要集中在拉丁美洲、欧洲西部及非洲,碳排放效率较低的国家基本位于北美、亚洲及大洋洲;(2)从整体来看,科技创新水平、人均GDP及信息化水平均对碳排放效率提升具有显著促进作用,促进作用大小为人均GDP>科技创新水平>信息化水平,城镇化水平、工业占比及对外开放度均对碳排放效率提升具有显著抑制作用,抑制作用大小为城镇化水平>对外开放度>工业占比;(3)分区域来看,不同等级城镇化水平国家各影响因素对碳排放效率的作用效应呈现明显的异质性。基于实证分析结果,研究提出推进绿色城镇化建设、重视科技创新生态价值、优化对外出口贸易结构等政策建议。

Pushing forward the urbanization process and developing the low-carbon economy is an important problem facing many countries around the world.Based on the panel data of 118 countries in the world from 2009 to 2016,the study explored the influencing mechanism of the overall sample and the country’s urbanization development with different levels of urbanization on the carbon emission efficiency using STIRPAT model.The research results show that:(1)The spatial differentiation of carbon emission efficiency of the research samples was relatively obvious.Countries with higher carbon emission efficiency are mainly in Latin America,Western Europe and Africa.(2)On the whole,the level of scientific and technological innovation,per capita GDP and information level all play a significant role in promoting the efficiency of carbon emissions.The order of promotion is per capita GDP>level of scientific and technological innovation>level of informatization.The level of urbanization,the proportion of industry and the degree of openness to the outside world all have a significant inhibitory effect on the improvement of carbon emission efficiency.The degree of inhibition is urbanization level>openness>industrial proportion.(3)From a subregional point of view,the effects of various influencing factors on carbon emission efficiency in countries with different levels of urbanization show obvious heterogeneity.Based on the results,the study puts forward some suggestions,such as promoting the construction of green urbanization,paying attention to the ecological value of scientific and technological innovation,and optimizing the structure of foreign export trade.