基于logit预测模型分析高铁建设对交通的影响

Analysis of the Influence of High-speed Railway Construction on Traffic Pressure Based on Logit Prediction Model

近年来,中国高速铁路建设发展突飞猛进.同时,随着生活水平的不断提高,中国人民对高速铁路的需求也在日益增加.以此为背景,参考已有研究选取合适的指标构建logit模型预测市民出行方式,分析高铁开通对高速公路的车辆通行压力以及对人们远途出行方式选择的影响,最后融合损失厌恶函数与攀比效应改进模型,研究预测发展不同城市的高铁客运量进而给出城市的最优高铁配置数量.

In recent years,the construction and development of China's high-speed railway have made rapid progress.At the same time,with the continuous improvement of living standards,the Chinese people's demand for high-speed railway is also increasing.Serves as the background,reference for selecting the appropriate index to construct the logit model to predict residents travel mode,the analysis of high-speed opening of highway traffic pressure and influence on people long travel mode choice,finally the fusion effect of loss aversion function and compare improved model,the study predicts development in different cities of high-speed rail passenger Numbers and then give the number of the optimal configuration of high-speed rail.