劳动力市场改革的经济效应与政策优化——基于DSGE模型的模拟分析

Economic Effects of Labor Market Reform and Policy Optimization:Simulation Analysis Based on DSGE Model

考虑我国劳动力市场非正规部门就业、自主创业型就业与正规部门就业同时存在的事实,构建包含多种就业形式的动态随机一般均衡模型,考察降低自主创业进入成本、正规部门聘用成本、正规部门就业者议价能力等单项改革政策的长期与短期效应。结果显示,尽管长期中单项改革政策较好地实现了宏观经济稳定,但存在短期成本,表现为:所有单项改革政策均导致就业短暂下降以及通胀、失业短暂上升;降低自主创业进入成本的改革政策短期引致工资收入差距扩大,而降低正规部门聘用成本与议价能力的改革则使产出经历短暂衰退。相对其他单项改革政策,无论是短期效应还是长期效应,降低正规部门议价能力的改革政策效果均较好。在此基础上,进一步考察了综合改革政策的长期和短期效应。模拟分析的结果显示:综合改革产生的长期与短期效应均大于各单项改革;综合改革政策并未产生明显的短期成本;由所有单项改革构成的综合改革对产出和通胀的影响相对较大,而由两项正规部门单项改革构成的综合改革对就业和部门间工资收入差距具有相对较大的影响。因此,通过各项劳动力市场改革政策的协调配合,能有效降低改革的短期成本并显著改善劳动力市场改革效果。在政策实践中,选择何种单项改革组合构成的综合改革取决于政策调整的目标。

Considering coexistence of informal sector employment,self-employment and formal sector employment,this paper proposes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with various type employment,and investigates long term and short term macroeconomic effects of individual reform policies such as fall in the entry cost of self-employment,fall in formal sector hiring cost and bargain power,and the composite reform policy.The result shows that,though individual reform policy stabilized the macro-economy in long term,there is short term cost.(1)Total employment experiences impermanent falls and inflation and unemployment rises.(2)Wage gap is enlarged when entry cost of self-employment falls in short term,and output declines impermanent when formal sector hiring cost and bargain power falls.Compared with other individual reform policies,the effects of fall in formal sector bargain power is much better.The result of simulation analysis argues that,the short term cost is not significant for composite reform policy,and the macroeconomic effects of this policy is much better than individual reform policies.On this basis,the paper probes into the long term and short term effects of comprehensive reform policy.Simulation results indicate the following.(1)The long term and short term effects of the comprehensive reform policy are greater than those of the individual reforms.(2)The comprehensive reform policy does not produce obvious short-term costs.(3)The comprehensive reform composed of all individual reforms has a relatively large impact on output and inflation,while the comprehensive reform composed of two individual formal sector reforms has a relatively large impact on employment and inter-sector wage gap.Therefore,coordination of various reform policies could decrease the short term cost and improve the macroeconomic effect of the labor market reform.