减税能提升企业创新效率吗?——基于PVAR模型的经验证据

Can Tax Cuts Promote Regional Innovation Efficiency?Empirical Evidence Based on PVAR Model

基于面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,使用我国2009—2017年省际数据,研究税收负担与区域企业创新效率间的动态关系。结果发现:税收负担与区域企业创新效率之间存在双向因果关系;减税冲击能提升区域创新效率,并且这一影响将持续4~5年;此外,减税还能提高产出增长率,增加企业的盈利水平,区域经济增长率的提升反过来也能增加区域创新效率。方差分解分析说明税负冲击是创新效率波动的重要来源。当前,应当进一步落实减税降费政策,有效降低企业税负水平,扩大税收政策弹性,将企业创新效率水平纳入财政税收管理绩效考核体系,推动经济发展方式从要素驱动向创新驱动转变。

Based on the panel vector auto regression(PVAR)model,this paper uses provincial data from 2009 to 2017 to study dynamic relationship between tax burden and regional enterprise innovation efficiency.The study has found that there is a two-way causal relationship between the tax burden and the innovation efficiency of regional enterprises.The impact of tax cuts in the short term can improve regional innovation efficiency,and this impact will last for four to five years.In addition,tax cuts can increase the growth rate of output and profitability of enterprises.The increase in regional economic growth rate can in turn increase regional innovation efficiency.Variance decomposition analysis shows that tax shock is an important source of innovation efficiency fluctuations.Therefore,China should further implement tax reduction and fee reduction policies to effectively reduce macro tax burden of enterprises.The flexibility of the enterprise will be incorporated into performance evaluation system of fiscal and taxation management for the level of enterprise innovation efficiency,and economic development mode will be transformed from an element-driven approach to an innovation-driven approach.