新冠肺炎疫情对中国就业的影响及其应对

The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on China's Employment and the Countermeasures to It

本文提出产出损失折算法,并测算新冠肺炎疫情对中国就业的影响。新冠肺炎疫情在2020年第一季度会带来约8400万个就业岗位损失,全年会带来约2300万个就业岗位损失。预计2020年中国就业总量将比上年减少约750万人,相当于使失业率上升约1个百分点。分行业来看,住宿餐饮业、旅游业、文化娱乐业、交通运输业的就业受到重大冲击,就业岗位损失都在百万甚至数百万个以上。分群体来看,农民工、灵活就业人员、高校毕业生就业受到更大影响。在推广新的工作方式、培育新的就业增长点、促进重点群体就业、稳定劳动关系等方面提出了对策建议。

This paper proposes an output loss conversion method to estimate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on China's employment.The results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic will result in the loss of approximately 84 million jobs in the first quarter of 2020 and approximately 23 million jobs in the whole year of 2020.China's total employment in 2020 is expected to decline,with 7.5 million fewer jobs than the previous year,which is equivalent to a 1%rise in its unemployment rate.From the perspective of sub-industries,the employment of lodging and catering industry,tourism industry,cultural and recreation industry,and transportation industry suffer a major impact,each industry with the loss of more than a million,or millions of jobs.In terms of groups,the employment of migrant workers,flexible workers,and college graduates are more affected.This paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions from the aspects of promoting new working modes,cultivating new employment growth points,promoting the employment of key groups and stabilizing labor relations.