泥石流危险性评价模型适用性的影响机制研究

Influence Mechanism of Applicability of Debris Flow Hazard Evaluation Model

以支持向量机(SVM)模型为例,基于云南地区和黄河积石峡水库区两地的泥石流样本,探讨了SVM模型的适用性是否受到泥石流系统空间变异性的影响。以上述两地区的泥石流样本为原始数据,引入灰色关联度模型进行灰色关联度分析,研究了空间变异性对泥石流危险性评价模型适用性的内在影响机制。结果表明:空间变异性对泥石流评价模型的适用性有很大的影响;并且使不同地区同一评价指标对泥石流危险性的重要程度发生改变,影响了模型的适用性。

Taking the support vector machine(SVM)model as an example,based on the debris flow samples of Yunnan area and Jishixia reservoir area of the Yellow River,we discussed whether the applicability of SVM model is affected by the spatial variability of debris flow system.Then,taking the debris flow samples of the above two areas as the original data,we analyzed the gray correlation degree by using the gray correlation degree model,and discussed how the spatial variability affected the generalization ability of the debris flow risk assessment model.The results show that the spatial variability has a great influence on the applicability of debris flow evaluation model,and changes the importance of the same evaluation index in different areas on the risk of debris flow,which affects the applicability of the model.