邻里效应对农民贫困脆弱性的影响

Impact of Neighborhood Effect on Farmers'Poverty Vulnerability

基于2016年和2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),通过构建贫困脆弱性测量模型和Manski社会互动效应模型实证研究邻里效应对农民贫困脆弱性的影响。研究发现:整体上我国农村地区贫困脆弱性处于较低水平,2017年农村居民贫困脆弱性较2015年有所提高,同时呈现不同区域和个体具有显著差异、非贫困群体中存在高脆弱性群体的特征;贫困具有邻里效应,邻里效应对农村居民当期贫困状态和未来贫困状态均产生显著不利影响,个体关联效应与社区情景互动效应对贫困与贫困脆弱性发挥不同程度的影响;邻里效应对农村居民提高家庭人均纯收入发挥显著阻碍作用,对低收入群体发挥的阻碍边际效应明显高于高收入群体;邻里效应对农村居民贫困脆弱性影响存在明显区域差异,东北地区邻里效应对贫困脆弱性不具有显著影响,在西部地区邻里效应对贫困脆弱性加剧边际效应高于其他地区。

Based on the 2016 and 2018 Chinese Family Tracking Survey data(CFPS),this paper empirically studies the impact of neighborhood effects on farmers'risk of falling into poverty by constructing a poverty vulnerability measurement model and a Manski social interaction effect model.The study found that:overall,the poverty vulnerability of rural areas in China is at a relatively low level.In 2017,the poverty vulnerability of rural residents increased compared with 2015.There exist significant differences between different regions and individual characteristics;and presents a feature of high vulnerability groups among the non-poor groups;poverty has a neighborhood effect.Poor neighborhood effects have a significant adverse effect on the current and future poverty status of rural residents.The interaction effects of individual association effects and scenarios exert varying degrees of impact on poverty and poverty vulnerability.The neighborhood effect of impoverished communities plays a significant role in increasing the per capita net income of rural residents,and the marginal effect of impediments on low-income groups is significantly higher than that of high-income groups.There are obvious regional differences in the impact of poor neighborhoods on the poverty vulnerability of rural residents.The neighborhood effect in Northeast China does not have a significant impact on poverty vulnerability.The neighborhood effect in the Western regions has a higher marginal effect on poverty vulnerability than other regions.