基础设施水平对我国海外承包工程的影响分析——基于“一带一路”沿线国家的面板数据研究

Analysis of the Impact of Infrastructure Level on China’s Overseas Contracted Projects——based on panel data of countries along the“Belt and Road”

利用2008—2018年在“一带一路”沿线国家的面板数据,构建双固定效用模型,进行单位根检验、回归分析等计量分析。实证分析表明:“一带一路”沿线国家基础设施水平与中国海外承包工程量之间的关系处于长期平稳的状态,且基础设施水平的高低直接影响中国海外承包工程量。但是沿线国家间基础设施水平之间呈现发展不均衡的问题,其中东南亚区域的基础设施水平建设更有利于中国海外工程承包的投资,中东欧、西亚等区域的部分国家基础设施建设难度大。另外,“一带一路”沿线国家基础设施水平表现出时滞性的特点,对于我国海外工程承包的影响存在滞后效用。

Based on the panel data of countries along the belt and road from 2008 to 2018,the double-fixed utility model was constructed and the unit root test and regression analysis were carried out.Empirical analysis shows that the relationship between the infrastructure level of countries along the“Belt and Road”and China’s overseas contracted projects is in a long-term stable state,and the level of infrastructure directly affects China’s overseas contracted projects.However,there is a problem of uneven development among the infrastructure levels among the countries along the route.Among them,the level of infrastructure construction in the Southeast Asian region is more conducive to China’s overseas project contracting investment.It is difficult to build infrastructure in some countries in Central and Eastern Europe and Western Asia.In addition,the infrastructure level of countries along the“Belt and Road”shows a time lag,which has a lagging effect on China’s overseas project contracting.