摘要
2019新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)是一种全球性流行性疾病.利用贝叶斯系统发育的方法,根据病毒的基因序列来推断有效再生数Re随着时间推移所产生的变化,并用它来表现该病毒流行的动态.研究结果显示:Re随时间变化并不太大,Re最高点的中值为2.88(95%HPD:2.36~3.46),最低点在2020年1月29日左右,其中值为2.74(95%HPD:2.27~3.26).该研究提供了COVID-19流行病学的一些关键参数值,希望这些结论能够帮助同行用数学建模的方法来更好地估计疾病早期的未知参数.
Corona Virus Disearse 2019(COVID-19)is a global pandemic.We employ a Bayesian phylogenetic method to infer the epidemic dynamics represented by the effective reproductive number(Re)changing over time from the genomic sequences.Our results show that Re decreased slightly over time,from the highest median value of 2.88(95%HPD:2.36-3.46)at the beginning to the lowest median value of 2.74(95%HPD:2.27-3.26)near January 29,2020.This study provides some key parameter values of the COVID-19 epidemic.We hope that these inferences will help some colleagues to estimate unknown parameters of the early stages of the outbreak in their mathematical modelling.
作者
娄洁
汪圳
金鑫
张致远
LOU Jie;WANG Zhen;JIN Xin;ZHANG Zhiyuan(College of Sciences,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China;Department of Statistics,Columbia University,NY 10027,New York,USA)
出处
《上海师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
2020年第3期351-358,共8页
Journal of Shanghai Normal University(Natural Sciences)
基金
The Natural Science Foundation of China(11771277)。
