需求及建设成本不确定下考虑失效的内陆港选址研究

Study on site selection of inland ports considering node failure under undecided demands and construction cost

针对需求和建设成本不确定及节点失效下的内陆港选址问题,应用随机规划理论解决需求不确定性问题,应用最小最大后悔值理论解决建设成本不确定性问题,构建该问题的鲁棒—随机选址模型。设计粒子群—模拟退火算法求解,通过算例分析验证模型的有效性。结果表明:鲁棒—随机选址模型可得到鲁棒性较强的解,能很好地解决内陆港选址中需求和建设成本不确定问题,降低各情景发生时的最大后悔值;考虑内陆港失效对提高内陆港系统的可靠性及减小失效风险具有显著作用。

To cope with inland port site selection under undecided demands and construction cost and with consideration of node failure,a robust stochastic site selection model is constructed.In the model,the stochastic programming theory is applied to solve the problem of demand uncertainty,and the minimum and maximum regret value theory is applied to solve the problem of construction cost uncertainty.An algorithm combined with Particle swarm algorithm and simulated annealing algorithm is designed to solve the problem.The validity of the model is verified by example analysis.The results show that the robust stochastic site selection model can obtain a robust solution,indicating that it is applicable in inland port site selection under undecided demands and construction cost,and that it can reduce the maximum regret value in each scenario.Besides,considering node failure in the process of inland port site selection plays a significant role in improving the reliability of inland port system and reducing the failure risk.