我国省域人口流动对经济发展的传导机制研究--基于门槛效应模型的分析

Research on the Transmission Mechanism of Population Migration to Economic Development:Based on the Threshold Effect Model

基于1998~2018年间我国31个省(区、市)的面板数据,采用门槛效应模型分析了在不同人口流动规模、受教育程度、工资水平、户籍限制条件下人口流动对经济发展的传导机制。研究发现:适度规模的人口流动能够通过劳动力传导机制较大程度地推动经济发展,但是过度的流动人口也会带来社会发展的负担,削弱通过劳动力传导机制对经济发展的促进作用。同时,合理配置劳动力有助于人口流动通过技术传导机制推动经济发展。此外,在较高的工资水平与较低的户籍限制下,人口流动通过投资、消费传导机制对经济发展产生的推动作用较大。最后,从人才培养、薪酬制度和户籍制度三个方面来提出相应的政策建议以促进我国经济的高质量发展。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 1998 to 2018,this paper uses a threshold effect model to analyze the transmission mechanism of population migration to economic development under different conditions o,such as education level,wage level,and household registration restrictions.The study found that:First,the population migration should be controlled at a moderate level to stimulate economic development strongly through labor transmission channels.Second,it is not that the higher the education level of the population,the higher the human capital through technological transformation to promote economic development.In addition,the higher the wage level,the greater the promotion of economic development under the transmission mechanism of investment,tech⁃nology and consumption,but the opposite is the role under the transmission channel of labor.Finally,the lower house⁃hold registration restrictions can promote economic development better through consumption transmission channels.Therefore,combined with the research results and the actual situation in my country,this article puts forward corre⁃sponding policy recommendations from three aspects of talent training,salary system and household registration system to promote the high-quality development of our economy.