岩土混合型滑坡识别模型研究——以武汉市东湖高新技术开发区为例

Identification Model of Rock Soil Mixed Landslide

以武汉市东湖高新技术开发区地质灾害详细调查项目为依托,针对区内地质灾害规模小、可利用样本数量少的特点,通过专项斜坡地质结构调查,结合控制斜坡稳定性各项参数的敏感程度,综合分析各类斜坡结构叠加降雨和人类工程活动后的稳定性,建立武汉东湖高新区地质灾害隐患点识别模型。研究得出,①斜坡结构对其稳定性的影响程度依次为,坡度>坡形>覆盖层厚度>有无红粘土;②坡角<15°的缓坡,暴雨条件破坏概率基本为0。随着斜坡变陡破坏概率增加,坡角30°时,任何重现期的降雨量其破坏概率均>0.1,在凸形坡和直线型斜坡,其破坏概率达0.8以上;③考虑坡度、坡向、曲率、植被覆盖、坡形、土厚和人工切坡等7项指标,计算斜坡综合指数,通过综合指数和年概率识别地质灾害隐患点。

Based on the detailed investigation project of geological disaster in East Lake High-Tech Development Zone,aiming at the characteristics of small scale of geological disasters and small number of available samples in the zone,this paper comprehensively analyzes the stability of various slope structures after superimposed rainfall and human engineering activities,combining with the sensitivity of various parameters controlling slope stability,and establishes identification model of potential geological hazard points in Wuhan East Lake High-Tech Development Zone,.The results show that:①the influence degree of slope structure on its stability is:slope>slope shape>overburden thickness>whether there is red clay or not.②for gentle slope with slope angle less than 15°,the failure probability of rainstorm condition is basically 0.The failure probability of rainfall in any return period is greater than 0.1 when the slope angle is 30°.The failure probability of rainfall in convex slope and straight slope is more than 0.8.③considering 7 indexes such as slope,slope direction,curvature,vegetation coverage,slope shape,soil thickness and artificial cutting slope,the comprehensive index of slope is calculated,and the potential geological hazard points are identified by comprehensive index and annual probability.