新型冠状病毒肺炎的预报模型研究

Research on prediction model of novel coronavirus pneumonia

针对新型冠状病毒肺炎的疫情,建立了一类基于延迟微分方程的传染病模型。根据公布的疫情数据,确定了模型中各参数的取值范围。通过数值模拟分析了隔离概率、境外输入感染率和复工率等因素对疫情发展的影响,并对下一步的防控重点给出了一些建议。

A kind of epidemic model is established based on delay differential equation to study the epidemic of novel coronavirus pneumonia. According to the reported data, we confirm the range of parameters in the model. Moreover, by using numerical simulation, we analyze the impact of the isolation probability, the occurrence of imported infection cases from abroad and the full resumption of production on the tendency of the epidemic. And we give some suggestions on the future work.