基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的上海市卫生总费用预测研究

Prediction of Total Expenditure on Health in Shanghai Based on Grey GM(1,1)Model

目的:分析上海市卫生总费用及其筹资结构现状,对上海市卫生总费用及构成的变化趋势进行预测分析,以期为上海市卫生部门制定医疗保健政策与筹资策略提供科学的参考依据。方法:根据2011-2018年《上海统计年鉴》,选取卫生总费用、政府卫生支出、社会卫生支出、个人卫生支出等相关数据作为预测指标,分析上海市卫生总费用及构成的变化现状,通过构建灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,对上海市卫生总费用及构成的变化趋势进行预测。结果:2010-2016年,上海市卫生总费用呈不断上升趋势,卫生总费用占GDP的比重从4.31%增加到6.52%,政府和个人卫生支出占卫生总费用的比重不断降低,社会卫生支出占卫生总费用的比重持续增加。2017-2023年,上海市卫生总费用及构成将继续呈现上升的趋势,个人卫生支出占卫生总费用占比逐渐降低。结论:上海市卫生费用筹资结构更加合理,医疗卫生水平不断提升。今后,上海市需要进一步优化筹资结构,控制卫生总费用合理支出,继续平稳降低个人卫生费用所占比例,从而促进卫生政策的可持续发展,提高全民的健康水平。

Objective:To analyze the total expenditure on health and its financing structure in Shanghai,and to forecast the changes in the total expenditure health and composition of Shanghai,in order to provide a scientific reference for the health department of Shanghai to formulate health care policies and financing strategies.Methods:According to the Shanghai Statistical Yearbook from 2011 to 2018,the relevant data such as total expenditure on health,government health expenditure,social health expenditure,and personal health expenditure were selected as predictive indicators to analyze the changes of the total expenditure on health and the composition of Shanghai.The Grey GM(1,1)forecasting model predicted the trend of total expenditure on health and composition in Shanghai.Results:From 2010 to 2016,Shanghai's total expenditure on health showed an upward trend.The proportion of total expenditure on health to GDP increased from 4.31%to 6.52%.The proportion of government and personal health expenditure to total health expenditure continued to decrease,while the proportion of social health expenditure to the total expenditure on health had been increasing.From 2017 to 2023,Shanghai's total health expenditure and composition will continue to show an upward trend,and the proportion of personal health expenditure in the total health expenditure will steadily and gradually decrease.Conclusion:The financing structure of health expenditure in Shanghai is more reasonable,and the level of medical and health care is constantly improving.In the future,Shanghai needs to further optimize its fund-raising structure,control the reasonable expenditure on total health expenditure,and continue to reduce the proportion of personal health expenditure steadily,thereby promoting the sustainable development of health policies and improving the health of the entire population.