常州市城乡一体化供水中需水量预测的研究与思考

Research and reflection on the water demand prediction in urban and rural integrated water supply in Changzhou

城乡一体化供水是适应新时期城市发展和社会经济发展的现实需要,如何做到需水量的精确、合理预测对于能否实现"以水定城、以水定地、以水定人、以水定产"具有决定性意义。系统分析常规计算方法在进行区域需水量预测时的局限性,结合常州市区域统筹供水需水量预测,研究和建立了城乡一体化供水中的分区域、分类型需水量预测方法,在充分调查历史用水数据、研究用水特征变化趋势的基础上,优化和确定了用水指标,并有效提高了预测的准确性和可靠度,以期为其他同类地区和项目提供参考和借鉴价值。

Urban and rural integrated water supply is to meet the actual needs of urban development and socio-economic development in the new era.How to achieve accurate and reasonable prediction of water demand is of decisive significance for the realization of"water based city,water based land,water based people and water based production".This paper systematically analyzes the limitations of conventional calculation methods in the prediction of regional water demand.Combined with the prediction of regional overall water demand in Changzhou,it studies and establishes the prediction methods of water demand in different regions and categories in urban-rural integrated water supply.On the basis of full investigation of historical water use data and research on the change trend of water use characteristics,it optimizes and determines water use indicators,as well as effectively improve the accuracy and reliability of prediction,with a view to providing reference and reference value for other similar regions and projects.