粤港澳大湾区经济带综合承载力评价及时空格局演变研究

Study on the Evolution of Time and Space Pattern of Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Evaluation of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area

为探讨粤港澳大湾区综合承载力的现状与未来发展趋势,从经济社会系统、资源能源系统以及环境系统三个方面构建评价指标体系,采用状态空间模型对粤港澳大湾区综合承载力的时空演变状态进行分析。结果表明:(1)2008—2017年大湾区经济带综合承载力未达到临界超载或可载状态,且整体呈下降趋势;(2)从空间分布特征看,大湾区内部各城市综合承载力整体上空间分化逐渐减弱,综合承载力指数呈下降趋势,但2014年之后大部分城市的综合承载力不断增强,广州、深圳、澳门、珠海的提升幅度最大;(3)进一步利用变异系数分析发现,经济社会系统、资源能源系统的变异系数与综合承载力变异系数走向相吻合,空间分异特征减弱,但环境系统综合承载力的空间分异特征逐渐明显。

In order to explore the status quo and future development trend of the comprehensive carrying capacity of Dawan District in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area,the evaluation index system is constructed from three aspects:economic and social system,resource and energy system and environmental system.The state space model is used to comprehensively carry the comprehensive bearing of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area;.The temporal and spatial evolution of force is analyzed.The results show that:(1)The comprehensive carrying capacity of the economic belt of Dawan District in 2008—2017 did not reach the critical overload or loadable state,and the overall trend showed a downward trend.(2)From the perspective of spatial distribution characteristics,the overall spatial carrying capacity of the cities within the Dawan District has gradually weakened,and the comprehensive carrying capacity index has shown a downward trend.However,the comprehensive carrying capacity of most cities after 2014 has been continuously enhanced,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Macao and Zhuhai have the largest increase.(3)Further analysis of the coefficient of variation found that the coefficient of variation of the economic and social systems,resource and energy systems is consistent with the trend of the coefficient of variation of comprehensive bearing capacity,and the spatial differentiation characteristics are weakened,but the spatial differentiation characteristics of the comprehensive carrying capacity of the environmental system are gradually becoming obvious.