输入型通胀的国际传导与宏观应对政策研究

Research on the International Transmission and Macroeconomic Countermeasures of Imported Inflation

借助近年来发展迅速的新开放宏观经济学模型,本文在两国一般均衡框架下考察了输入型通胀的国际传导、福利效应及宏观应对政策的有效性问题。研究发现,在包含噪声交易的不完全外汇市场中输入型通胀造成:本国产出在冲击后短暂扩张,然后迅速萎缩;消费在冲击发生后先下降后反弹,但始终低于初始稳态;名义净出口在短暂扩张后随本币不断升值而经历长期逆差。在完全理性汇率预期假设下,本币在短期升值后将持续贬值,继而使输入型通胀冲击在更大幅度上推高国内价格水平。福利分析显示,当贸易开放水平较低时,噪声交易有助于减少输入型通胀造成的福利损失,仅当贸易开放度超过31%时,完全理性汇率预期假设下的福利损失才显著小于包含噪声交易的情形,说明在外向型经济发展初期,保持适当的外汇干预与汇率管制对于抵御国际价格冲击是有利的。此外,对扩展型财政与货币政策的福利分析表明,政府应更多通过适度增加财政支出以对冲输入型通胀的不利影响,货币政策通常是无效的。

Based on the NOEM theory achieving great progress recently,we construct a twocountry model to explore impacts and welfare effects of imported inflation,and further study the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.The paper reveals in a benchmark model characterized by noise trading,domestic output tends to increase shortly and then decrease after the imported inflation shock,consumption on the contrary would decrease firstly and rebounds after the shock,but is still lower than that in the initial steady state,net export would experience longrun deficit caused by appreciation of domestic currency after a short expansion.However,under the assumption of rational exchange rate expectations,continuous devaluation of domestic currency after a sharp appreciation leads to higher domestic inflation.Welfare analysis indicates an incomplete exchange market helps to reduce welfare loss of imported inflation shock under relatively low trade openness.Only when trade openness exceeds 31%,will it be an optimal option to build an exchange market abiding fully rational expectations,which proves in the early stage of export-oriented economic development,appropriate foreign exchange intervention and exchange rate control help to withstand external price shocks.Welfare analysis of expanded fiscal and monetary policies indicates that government should expand fiscal expenditure moderately to hedge against adverse impact of imported inflation,and that monetary policy is usually invalid.