国际贸易对股票市场国际一体化的影响--来自“一带一路”沿线国的证据

Impact of International Trade on the International Integration of the Stock Market:Evidence from the Countries Along the Belt and Road

本文基于中国与其他67个"一带一路"沿线国家1990年至2017年样本数据,理论与实证分析了沿线国的国际贸易对该国股票市场国际一体化水平的影响,结果发现,"一带一路"沿线国家的国际贸易对其股票市场国际一体化有正向促进效应。进一步研究发现,该效应的影响机制主要有银行业发展、金融开放和股票市场发展,同时沿线国家的银行业发展、金融开放或股票市场发展水平越高,越会弱化国际贸易对股票市场国际一体化的正向影响。因此,沿线国家应积极发展对外贸易,并兼顾银行业发展、金融开放和股市发展,以提高股市国际一体化水平。

Based on the sample data of China and other 67 countries from 1990 to 2017,this paper analyzes the impact of international trade on the level of international integration of the stock market in the countries along the One Belt and One Road.Further research shows that the main influencing mechanisms of this effect are through banking development,financial openness and stock market development.Furthermore,the higher the level of banking development,financial openness or stock market development of countries,the weaker the positive impact of international trade on the international integration of stock market.Therefore,in order to improve the level of international integration of stock market,countries along the One Belt and One Road should actively develop foreign trade,meanwhile,also take the development of banking,financial openness and stock market development into account.