摘要
高铁是交通基础设施建设的重要组成部分,开通高铁会对地区出口产生怎样的影响?本研究将中国高铁视作一项大规模准自然实验,通过匹配1999-2013年中国地级城市数据和高铁数据,实证检验高铁带来的要素流动性提高对地区出口的影响及其作用机制。双向固定效应模型回归结果表明开通高铁显著地负向影响了外围城市的出口,边际效应为10.23%。本文采用PSM-DID和基于地理信息的工具变量来减少内生性问题,采用不同时间段、滞后项和调整变量指标等多种稳健性检验,所得结论依然稳健。机制分析发现高铁对地区出口的影响来自固定贸易成本降低带来的促进作用机制和资本流出带来的负向虹吸效应机制,并且以虹吸效应为主。本研究基于高铁的城市出口效应进行研究,进一步完善了高铁的经济效应评估,为高铁与外贸发展的关系提供了新的经验证据,对高铁的发展规划也具有重要的启示意义。
High-speed railway(HSR)is an important part of transportation infrastructure construction,how it affects regions'export remains unclear.This paper regarded China's HSR as a quasinatural massive experiment and took advantage of prefecture-level data in the period of 1999—2013 to examine HRS-induced regional labor liquidity increase's influence on export.Basic regression results showed that HRS has a significantly negative effect on peripheral cities'export.Using PSMDID and IV to solve the endogenous problem,the results remained robust.Mechanically,HSR's effect on region's export resulted from the positive effect of fixed trade cost reduction and negative effect of siphonic effect,while the latter dominates.Our results were expected to fulfill some gaps in HSR's economic effect study,providing insightful suggestion for policy makers in transportation infrastructure construction and export development.
作者
张梦婷
俞峰
钟昌标
Zhang Mengting;Yu Feng;Zhong Changbiao(Business School,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China;Donlinks School of Economics and Management,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《南开经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第3期204-224,共21页
Nankai Economic Studies
基金
国家社科重大项目“新时代兼顾公平与效率的区域协调发展战略研究”(18VSJ023)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“引进外资与对外投资两大战略的协调机制与政策研究”(71673182)
中国博士后科学基金面上项目“量化服务贸易自由化的福利效应:基于电影大数据的证据”(2019M660468)的资助。
