新型冠状病毒肺炎流行有关影响因素分析

Analysis on the epidemic factors for COVID-19

新型冠状病毒肺炎作为一种新发传染病,其流行过程具有一系列特殊影响因素和条件。本次疫情中,病原体“新”,使人产生“疑惑”;起病“缓”,给临床带来“迷惑”;传染源“杂”,给防控造成“困惑”;传播途径“易”,促使发病“剧增”;人群易感性“高”,引起“高发”;加之自然因素“复杂”和社会因素“叠加”,是本次疫情广泛传播流行的明显特征。我国采取的积极有效防控策略和措施极大改变了本次疫情的自然流行过程和轨迹,受到世界卫生组织专家组的高度肯定和众多国家和国际组织的赞扬。但认真总结,深入思考,从全局和长远谋划、实现中国乃至全球公共卫生安全将是今后一个相当长期的艰苦工作。

As a new infectious disease,the epidemic process of COVID-19 has a series of special influencing factors and conditions.In this paper,some obvious characteristics of this widespread epidemic are discussed,including the new pathogen making people feel confused,the slow onset bringing confusion to the clinic,the miscellaneous source of infection also causing confusion to prevention and control work,the easy route of transmissions leading to a sharp increase of confirmed cases,the high susceptibility of the population leading to a high incidence,and the natural epidemic process coupled with the complexity of natural factors and the superposition of social factors.The positive and effective prevention and control strategies and measures adopted by China have greatly changed the natural epidemic process and trajectory of this epidemic,which has been highly affirmed by the expert group of the World Health Organization and praised by many countries and international organizations.However,to sum up carefully and think deeply,it will be a long-term and arduous work to plan and realize public health security in China and even the world in the future.