摘要
利用安徽省各地市卫生健康委员会官方网站公布的新型冠状病毒肺炎(简称新冠肺炎)疫情数据,绘制安徽省确诊病例数时空分布地图,运用种群增长曲线拟合安徽省不同阶段疫情变化曲线,对全省和各地市疫情进行统计描述与分析。截至2020年2月18日,安徽省新冠肺炎累积发病率为1.56/10万,且安徽省报告新冠肺炎疫情在2月7日后呈现下降趋势,并由J型曲线变化到S型曲线,因病例报告时间比实际发病时间可能推迟3~5 d,安徽省新增病例实际于2020年2月2—4日前后开始下降。
We used the epidemic data of COVID-19 published on the official website of the municipal health commissions in Anhui province to map the spatiotemporal changes of confirmed cases,fit the epidemic situation by the population growth curve at different stages and analyze the epidemic situation in Anhui Province.It was found that the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 was 156/100000 by February 18,2020 and the trend of COVID-19 epidemic declined after February 7 with a change from J-shaped curve to S-shaped curve.As the reporting time of cases might be 3-5 days later than the actual onset time,the number of new cases in Anhui province actually began to decline around February 2 to February 4,2020.
作者
刘蒙
徐洪吕
袁敏
刘志荣
伍晓艳
张一
马丽娅
龚磊
甘虹
刘雯雯
陶舒曼
宗巧
杜亚楠
陶芳标
Liu Meng;Xu Honglü;Yuan Min;Liu Zhirong;Wu Xiaoyan;Zhang Yi;Ma Liya;Gong Lei;Gan Hong;Liu Wenwen;Tao Shuman;Zong Qiao;Du Yanan;Tao Fangbiao(Department of Maternal,Child and Adolescent Health,School of Public Health,Anhui Medical University/Population Health Across Life Cycle,Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China/National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Study on Abnormal Gametes and Reproductive Tract,Hefei 230032,China;Center for Big Data Science in Health,School of Health Service Management,Anhui Medical University,Hefei 230032,China;Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hefei 230601,China;Department of Health Emergecy Management and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention,Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hefei 230601,China)
出处
《中华预防医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第6期630-633,共4页
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
基金
安徽医科大学新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎疫情应急科研攻关目(YJGG202001)
安徽省科技厅、安徽省卫健委应急科研攻关项目(202004a07020002)。
