电力用户停电影响指标体系及综合评估方法

Impact Index System and Comprehensive Assessment for the Power Outage of Power Users

现代社会对电能的依赖程度日益加深,电力用户的停电会给用户自身和供电企业带来重大影响和损失。提出了一种停电影响综合评估方法:首先从用户停电所带来的用户经济损失影响、供电企业经济损失及其供电可靠性考核指标影响等方面出发,同时综合考虑用户对供电企业的重要性程度,建立用户停电影响综合指标体系,即在计算用户直接经济损失指标时考虑用户停电时段不同带来的经济损失差异,提出基于产业关联度分析理论的用户间接经济损失计算方法,并利用熵值法实现对复杂指标的量化计算。在进行体系各项指标计算后,利用层次分析法针对不同评估主体设置不同的指标权重,实现多角度、全方位的评估。通过实例计算分析,验证了所提出指标体系与综合评估方法的合理性和可行性,为用户了解停电损失、供电企业进行生产效能评估和停电管理提供参考。

With the increasing dependence of modern society on electrical energy,the power outages to the power users can cause significant losses and impacts on both the users and the power supply companies.Considering the difference of losses caused by the power outage periods,the theory of industrial relevance analysis is introduced into the calculation,and the calculation methods of different economic and technical indicators for users and power supply enterprises are proposed,and a comprehensive evaluation model of user power outage impact is established.Based on the analytic hierarchy process,different index weights are set for different evaluation subjects to achieve multi-angle and all-round evaluation.Through the calculation and analysis of the example,the feasibility of the proposed method is verified,which provides a reference for users to understand the power outage loss,the efficiency evaluation of the power supply enterprise,and the pre-blackout arrangement and investment.