后疫情时代国际能源格局变化前瞻

Potential changes in the international energy landscape in the postepidemic era

新冠疫情全球暴发以来,疫情对世界经济和能源市场造成的影响日益显著,世界油气需求受到巨大影响,油气市场严重失衡,多重因素叠加导致油气价格暴跌。疫情发展成为影响未来能源需求变化的最重要因素,世界各国采取的封控措施的放松进程将直接决定能源需求和能源价格走势。因此,疫情发展或将给能源行业和能源生产国稳定带来巨大冲击,而且由疫情引发的人类行为方式的变化,可能导致国际能源结构发生改变。鉴于疫情对能源市场造成的影响,提出三点建议:一是密切关注世界疫情发展态势及其对全球能源行业的影响;二是用辩证的思维和发展的眼光看待目前的能源市场发展局势,暂时不对能源国企提出利润目标;三是加强国际能源合作,积极参与国际能源治理。

Since the outbreak of Covid-19,the grave impacts by the epidemic to world economy and global energy market are becoming more apparent.The world oil and gas demand is unprecedentedly contracted that leading to a new round of even heavier market oversupply and price slump.The future course of the epidemic itself is now the most important factor to shape the future energy landscape and the process of easing away from lockdown measures adopted by different countries will directly determine how the energy demand and price will develop.So the epidemic has exerted a great shock to the stability of energy industry and that of energy producing countries.Accordingly,the adapted behavior of energy consumers will lead to changes in the international energy structure.Three recommendations based upon the above impacts are put forward:first one is to closely watch the future development of the epidemic and its further impact to energy industries,the second is to see the current energy market with dialectical thinking&development vision and to temporarily relax the performance examination based on profits to energy SOEs,the third one is to reinforce international energy cooperation and to deeply participate in international energy governance.