2019年中国成品油行业运行特点与近期展望

Operation characteristics of China’s refined oil industry in 2019 and outlook for the second half of 2020

2019年,中国成品油行业运行特点可以概括为"一个中心、两个亮点、三个变化、四个判断"。即,以成品油行业市场化改革为中心;《关于加快发展流通促进商业消费的意见》和《中共中央国务院关于营造更好发展环境支持民营企业改革发展的意见》成为成品油行业市场化改革向纵深发展的保障;成品油行业出现开放扩大化、市场主体多元化、市场竞争白热化等新的变化;成品油价格管理趋于放开,出口权更加开放,市场竞争进一步加剧,市场监管逐步向全产业链的事中和事后监管过渡。预计2020年下半年,国际原油价格将在30~50美元/桶波动,中国成品油市场总体向好,成品油价格和需求都将逐渐恢复和增长,成品油出口将复苏。

In 2019,the operation characteristics of China’s refined oil industry can be summarized as“one center,two highlights,three changes,and four judgments”.Namely,the market-oriented reform is the central feature of refined oil industry.Two policy documents issued by China’s central government,Opinions on Accelerating Circulation and Commercial Consumption and Opinions on Creating a Better Environment to Support the Private Enterprises,which would be the guarantee for the market-oriented reform of China’s refined oil industry.Such new changes have taken place in the refined oil industry as opening up and expansion,market entities diversification,and intensive market competition.Under the intensified market competition,the price management of refined oil has been liberalized with the more opening up export rights,and market supervision is gradually transitioning to the inprocess and post-process supervision of the whole industrial chain.It is expected that in the second half of 2020,the international crude oil price will fluctuate between 30-50 USD per barrel,the Chinese refined oil product market will be generally good,and the price,demand and export of refined oil will gradually recover and grow.