安徽省人口结构预测模型的构建及应用——以宿州市为例

Building and Application of Population Structure Prediction Model in Anhui Province—Take Suzhou City as Example

为探究近年来安徽省人口结构变化规律,以宿州市为例搜集历年人口数据,首先运用logistic模型对宿州市人口总量进行预测,然后运用人口发展模型对宿州市人口结构进行了预测,最后通过对两预测模型赋予最优权重将其进行组合,形成组合预测模型对宿州市人口进行短期预测,结果表明组合预测模型的预测精度更高,同时运用人口发展模型对宿州市人口结构进行长期预测。结果表明,未来宿州市人口总数一直呈现低速增长,婴儿出生率在没有全面二孩政策下,以每年平均约10万人的速度增长,但在全面二孩背景下宿州市的婴儿出生人口将会有所增加;而老龄化人口未来几年快速增长,研究表明,宿州老龄人口比例为已超过老龄化社会比例,宿州市老龄化社会形势严峻。

In order to explore the changes of population structure in Anhui province in recent years,this paper takes Suzhou city as an example to collect historical population data.First,logistic model was used to predict the total population of Suzhou.and then population development Model was used to predict the population structure of Suzhou,finally,the two forecasting models are combined with the optimal weight to form a combined forecasting model for short-term population prediction of Suzhou city.The result shows that the combined model has higher prediction accuracy.meanwhile,the population development model is used to forecast the long-term population structure of Suzhou.The results show that the population of Suzhou will be growing at a low speed in the future.In the absence of a universal two-child policy,the number of babies born grew at an average annual rate of about 100000,and the data will increase under the universal two-child policy,while the aging population will grow rapidly in the coming years.The study shows that the elderly population exceeds that of the aging society and the aging society in Suzhou is grim.