基于多元回归和灰色预测对科创板企业估值水平的研究

Research on Valuation of Scientific and Creative EnterprisesBased on Multivariate Regression and Grey Prediction Method

针对科创板企业估值水平,在引入平均市销率作为估值水平的背景下通过定量分析美国纳斯达克市场各项指标间的关系、中国A股市场流动性指标趋势以及93家科创板企业的基本面指标趋势,运用多元回归、灰色预测等方法,构建了美国纳斯达克市场企业估值量化模型和基于灰色系统的科创板上市企业基本面板指标以及中国A股市场流动性指标的预测模型,综合运用了MATLAB、STATA等软件编程求解并参考美国纳斯达克市场估值量化模型和中国A股市场流动性指标,最终成功预测我国首批科创板企业上市后的估值水平。

This paper focuses on the valuation of scientific and creative enterprises,through quantitative analysis of the relationship between the indicators of the US Nasdaq market,the trend of China’s A-share market liquidity indicators and the trend of the fundamental indicators of 93 scientific and creative enterprises,the use of multiple regression,grey prediction and other methods,the US Nasdaq market enterprise valuation model and the gray panel based basic panel indicators of the scientific and creative listed companies and the forecast model of China’s A-share market liquidity indicators were constructed.MATLAB,STATA and other software programming solutions and reference to the US Nasdaq market valuation model and China’s A-share market liquidity indicators used,finally the valuation of 93 companies in China’s 2019 listed on the Scientific and Creative Board is completed.