基于IIM的干旱灾害对黑龙江省玉米供应链的级联影响研究

Ripple effect of Drought Disaster on Maize Supply Chain of Heilongjiang Province based on Inoperability Input-output Model

为研究干旱灾害对黑龙江省玉米供应链的级联效应,以1998-2017年黑龙江省每年5-9月玉米生长期的降雨量月平均值代表各年不同的干旱程度,通过拟合降雨量-玉米产量方程给出了干旱灾害对玉米产量影响的规律,考虑由于供应链节点间的相互依赖性而存在的级联效应,把干旱灾害对玉米产量的影响作为触发供应链网络级联效应的初始扰动事件,采用不可运作投入产出模型(Inoperability Input-Output Model,IIM)和有序加权平均(Ordered Weighted Averaging,OWA)算子相结合的方法,通过评估当干旱导致供应短缺时玉米供应链上各节点的不可运作性,研究干旱灾害对黑龙江省玉米供应链的级联影响。结果表明,因干旱导致的玉米产量下降不仅给玉米生产者(农户)造成了损失,还通过级联效应将这种损失传递至整个供应链网络,给供应链上的所有节点均造成了不同程度的不可运作性。与其他节点的相互依赖程度越强,则受到干旱灾害导致的供给短缺的影响越严重,造成的不可运作程度与经济损失也越大。

The ripple effect of drought on maize supply chain in Heilongjiang Province was studied,We found the regularity of the effect of drought on maize yield through the fitting with rainfall in maize growing period and yield.Reduced miaze supply due to drought as a trigger event.Taking the risk of ripples caused by drought and spread across the supply chain network through the Interdependence among nodes into consideration.Combining IIM and OWA operator to quantify the impact of drought on maize supply chain in Heilongjiang Province through ripple effect,get the inoperability of each node in the supply chain.If a node and other nodes have greater interdependence,then it will get greater inoperability and economic loss.Finally,some suggestions are given to reduce the loss caused by ripple effect.