洪涝灾害情景下企业停产及恢复时间研究--基于余姚市“菲特”台风受损企业调查数据

Shutdown and Recovery Time of Enterprises under Flood Disaster Scenario based on Survival Analysis Model:An Empirical Study on the Damaged Enterprises in Yuyao City after Typhoon Fitow

损失评估是构建风险曲线、评估风险、计算保险指数的核心内容。当前自然灾害的经济损失评估多以宏观的投入产出表数据作为基础,采用I-O或CGE模型估算区域的经济损失。企业作为自然灾害的直接承灾体,其损失程度评估及恢复过程研究并未受到广泛关注。究其原因:一方面,宏观的投入产出数据容易获得,方法论较为成熟,经济损失评估过程相对规范化。另一方面,我国的中小企业供应链较短,受灾后企业自身及上下游关联企业造成的影响并未受到重视。近些年,随着供应链、物流产业的迅速发展,一地区的企业受灾,造成的"牵一发动全身"的影响已不可忽略。基于此,该文以台风造成的洪涝灾害为背景,利用实地调研的微观企业损失数据作为基础,采用生存分析模型,构建恢复曲线,提取造成企业恢复速度降低的因素,估算企业停产时间。研究结果显示:相比于降雨强度(传统危险性因素),企业规模、企业性质等自身因素,淹没水深是导致企业停产及较难恢复的关键因素。进一步,当淹没水深超过0.5 m,企业停产时间较淹没不足0.5 m的企业相比,延长7 d;当淹没水深超过1 m,企业停产时间延长至14 d。同时,对制造业而言,除淹没水深外,设备损毁、库存损毁等因素也是导致恢复期延长的重要因素。结合不同影响因素,本文定量估算出传统制造业企业的9种淹没情景与商业企业的3种淹没情景下,企业的平均停产及恢复时间。研究结果一方面可以预估洪涝灾害情景下,不同地区企业的损失及恢复率;另一方面可以为灾后企业应急管理提供有效的政策建议。

The assessment of disaster economic loss is the core content of constructing risk curve,assessing risk and calculating insurance index.At present,the regional economic loss assessment of natural disasters is mostly based on the macro input-output table data by using I-O or CGE models.As the direct bearing body of natural disasters,the research on loss assessment and recovery process of enterprises has not been widely concerned.On the one hand,the macro output data is easy to obtain,the methodology is relatively mature,and the process of economic loss assessment is relatively standardized.On the other hand,the supply chain of small and medium-sized enterprises in China is relatively short,and the impact of the enterprises themselves and the upstream and downstream associated enterprises after the disaster has not been taken seriously.In recent years,with the rapid development of supply chain and logistics industry,enterprises in a region suffered from disasters have caused a great impact on the whole system.Based on this,and taking the flood disaster caused by typhoon as the background,using the micro enterprise level loss data from the field survey as the basis and the survival analysis model,the enterprise shutdown and recovery process model to quantitatively evaluate the reasons for the low recovery rate of enterprisess constructed.Meanwhile,different types of enterprises and points out the influence of risk factors on industry differences is compared.The results show that,compared with the rainfall intensity(traditional risk factor),enterprise scale,enterprise nature and other factors,the inundation is the key factor that leads to the shutdown and recovery of enterprises.Further,when the inundation is more than 0.5m,the shutdown time of the enterprise will be extended by one week compared with that of the enterprise submerged less than 0.5m;when the inundation is more than 1m,the shutdown time of the enterprise will be extended to two weeks.Meanwhile,for different types of enterprises,in addition to inundation,equipment damage,inventory damage and other factors have become important factors for the extension of recovery period.Combined with different influencing factors,this paper quantitatively estimates the average downtime and recovery time of traditional manufacturing enterprises under 9 kinds of submergence scenarios and commercial enterprises under 3 kinds of submergence scenarios.The research results can predict the loss and recovery rate of enterprises in different regions under the flood disaster scenario and provide effective policy recommendations for emergency management after the disaster.