中国区域房价联动度测度及其影响因素分析——基于35个大中城市面板数据的研究

The Measurement of Regional Housing Price Linkage and Its Influencing Factors in China--Based on the Research of Panel Data of 35 Large and Medium Cities

本文基于2011年1月—2015年12月中国35个大中城市的月度数据,对中国区域房价联动度进行了测度并分析了区域房价联动的影响因素。结果发现,虽然35个城市间房价联动度的变化出现了一些起伏,但总体上表现出了明显的上升趋势。资本市场整合和房地产企业信贷差异对区域房价联动有显著的促进作用,而房地产企业所缴税费差异、人均收入差异、经济发展水平差异、人口数量差异、差别化调控政策对区域房价联动有阻碍作用,区域间距离对区域房价联动则无明显作用;动态面板模型的分析结果还表明区域房价联动存在惯性特征。

Based on the monthly data of 35 large and medium cities in China from January 2011 to December 2015,we measure the degree of regional housing price linkage and analyze the influencing factors of regional house price linkage degree.The results show that although the house price linkage degree between the 35 cities has a lot of ups and downs,the overall trend is significantly upward.Capital market integration and the credit difference of real estate enterprises significantly promote the regional house price linkage degree.The difference of real estate enterprise tax and fee,per capita income differences,differences in the level of economic development,population differences and differential regulation policy hinder the regional house prices linkage degree.Distance between two regions has no obvious effect on the regional house price linkage degree.Study based on the dynamic panel model also shows that regional house price linkage has the characteristics of inertia.