多主体收益视角下的融资担保体系建设研究

Research on the Construction of Financing Guarantee System from the Perspective of Multi-Agent Income

基于全国融资担保行业数据,运用系统动力学的方法,构建了国家融资担保基金、省级再担保机构、县市级担保机构和协作银行的多主体收益模型。研究发现:放大倍数提升能显著促进多主体收益的增长,但增长特征有差异;小微企业再担保业务占比提高并不会显著降低各主体的收益;代偿率依旧是影响融资担保业整体收益的关键要素;降低国家融资担保基金费率并提高风险分担比例,能有效补偿担保与再担保机构落实费率下调政策带来的损失,但存在临界值,通过促进地方政府补贴能有效推迟收益拐点出现的时间。进而明晰了关键参数对多主体收益的作用机理,为融资担保体系建设指明了政策方向。

In order to explore the mechanism of the guarantee system construction led by the National Guarantee Fund,a dynamic model of multi-agent income is constructed by using the method of system dynamics.The results are as follows.Firstly,the increase of magnification will promote the growth of overall revenue,but characteristics are different.Secondly,the increase of the proportion of SMEs'business will not significantly reduce the income of each entity.Thirdly,controlling the compensation rate is still the key to raise the overall revenue.Finally,lower rates and higher risk sharing of the National Guarantee Fund can effectively compensate the loss of guarantee and re-guarantee institutions due to the rate reduction,but the turning point always exists,which can be effectively delayed by promoting the subsidies of local government.Based on the above conclusions,the mechanism of parameters’adjustment on multi-agent income is clarified,and suggestions on how to lead the construction of financing guarantee system are also provided.