资源枯竭型城市转型系统动力模型构建与仿真——以阜新市为例

Simulation of transformation in resource-exhausted cities based on system dynamics

资源枯竭型城市转型是其实现可持续发展的必然选择。运用系统动力学理论,从能源、经济、科技、社会和环境等系统要素出发,构建资源枯竭型城市转型系统动力模型;以阜新市为例,确定模型参数及主要方程,在相关子系统上赋予环保、教育及科技等调控因子,动态仿真不同转型模式的实施效果。研究表明:在设定的模式及参数下,转型政策的实施与调整能够促进阜新市转型;相比于自然转型模式、环境友好转型模式及技术拉动转型模式,协调发展转型模式能够产生最佳的转型效果,有利于阜新市实现可持续发展。

Urban transformation is a logical choice for resource-exhausted cities to achieve sustainable development.We constructed a system dynamics model of transformation in resource-exhausted cities with system elements such as energy,economy,science and technology,society and environment,and took Fuxin city as a case to determine the parameters and main equations,while added adjustment factors from environmental protection,education,science and technology on each subsystem via system dynamics to further simulate different transformation models.The result indicates that given models and parameters,the adjustment and implementation of transformation policies can often promote the transformation of Fuxin city,in contrast with natural transformation model,environment-friendly transformation model and technology-driven transformation model,the coordinative development transformation model has the significant effect on urban transformation,which in favor of the sustainable development of Fuxin city.