中国省域旅游投入-产出-效益协调发展研究

Coordinative development of tourism input-output-performance in China

在构建旅游投入-产出-效益协调发展评价指标体系的基础上,运用耦合协调模型、探索性空间数据分析法、修正的GM(1,1)模型,对我国31个省市自治区旅游投入、产出和效益系统协调状况进行实证分析。结果表明:2007-2016年,我国三个子系统发展水平、耦合协调度均呈上升态势,且省际差异明显,呈东中西梯度递减的空间分布格局;三个子系统耦合协调度在空间上存在显著的正相关性,具有集聚特征;2017-2026年,我国三个子系统耦合协调度将有所提高,但实现优良协调尚需较长时间。

Based on the evaluation index system for the coordinative development level of tourism input-output-performance,the coupling coordination model,exploratory spatial data analysis method and the revised GM(1,1)model were used to analyze the coordination among three subsystems of China’s 31 provincial units.The result showed that:the development level and the coupling coordination degree of Chinese three subsystems were on the rise from 2007 to 2016.The spatial distribution pattern of decreasing gradient from East to West with obvious difference between provinces were presented.The coupling coordination degree of three subsystems had significant positive correlation and agglomeration characteristics in space.The coupling coordination degree of Chinese three subsystems would be improved,but it would take a long time to achieve excellent coordination.