设施联通与区域一体化——基于我国与“一带一路”国家的实证分析

Infrastructure Connectivity and Regional Integration——An Empirical Study of China and Countries along the Route of the Belt and Road

设施联通是“一带一路”建设的重要基础与优先合作领域,可有效推动中国和“一带一路”国家经济要素的有序自由流动、资源的高效配置与市场的深度融合即区域一体化。利用边界效应引力模型实证测度设施联通对中国与“一带一路”国家区域一体化的贡献发现,总体上,自2013年以来,我国与“一带一路”国家的双边贸易仅为与其他国家双边贸易的0.683~0.724倍,区域一体化水平仍然相对较低。具体来讲,在交通、能源、通信等各项基础设施联通中,铁路和港口设施联通贡献显著(铁路设施联通水平增加1%,双边贸易将增加0.324%,区域一体化水平将提高1.114%;港口设施联通水平增加1%,双边贸易将增加0.454%,区域一体化水平将提高4.614%),而公路、航空、能源、通信等设施联通贡献不显著。鉴于此,为更好地推动“一带一路”设施联通,首先就要重视发挥和加强设施(特别是公路、航空、能源、通信等)联通的跨区域要素流动与资源优化配置协调作用。具体而言,就是推动设施联通的标准化和市场化运作,建立争端解决机制,特别是跨国铁路、港口海关等设施的联通运作机制,以进一步推动产业和产品等更深层面的要素流动、资源配置与市场融合,提高一体化水平。

Infrastructure connectivity is an important foundation and priority cooperation area of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI).It can effectively promote the orderly and free flow of economic factors,resources effective distribution,and deep market integrate(i.e.regional integration)of China and countries along the route of the Belt and Road.With the help of border effect gravity model,the author measures the contribution of infrastructure connectivity to the regional integration of China and countries along the route of the Belt and Road.It is found that,since 2013,the bilateral trade between China and countries along the route of the Belt and Road is only 0.69-0.72 times than the bilateral trade between China and other countries,which indicates the low level of regional integration.Specifically speaking,among the various infrastructure connectivity,such as transportation,energy and communications,contributions of railways and ports are significant(bilateral trade could be increased by 0.324%and the level of regional integration could be increased by 1.114%if the railway infrastructure connectivity level is increases by 1%;and bilateral trade could be increased by 0.454%and the level of regional integration could be increased by 4.614%if the port infrastructure connectivity level is increases by 1%),while those of other infrastructures,such as roads,airport,energy and communications,are not significant.To better promote the infrastructure connectivity of BRI,we should pay more attention to the role of interregional factor flow and the coordination of resources optimized distribution of infrastructure(especially the roads,airport,energy,and communications).Specially speaking,we should promote the standardization and market-oriented operation of infrastructure connectivity,and establish the dispute settlement mechanism,especially for multinational railways and ports operation,to further promote factor flow,resources distribution,and market integration,and improve the level of integration.