“一带一路”倡议对中国双边贸易发展的影响

Analysis on the Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on China’s Bilateral Trade Development

“一带一路”是中国提出并倡导的多边区域经贸合作平台,承担着中国与沿线国家政治互信、经贸合作、文化交融的重大历史使命,对推动国际经济新秩序的形成,构建中国与沿线国家的命运共同体等具有重要的战略意义。基于2002—2018年跨国面板数据,利用得分倾向匹配双重差分法从总量效应、增长效应以及结构效应等方面评估“一带一路”倡议对中国与沿线国家双边贸易发展的政策效果。研究结果表明:该倡议提高了中国对于沿线国家的出口总额,使得沿线国家在中国贸易结构中的占比上升、贸易地位和重要性提升、政策红利持续释放,但没有提高中国在沿线国家贸易结构中所占比重及贸易增速,对沿线国家贸易影响力仍然不足,政策效果单边化。从不同国家来看,倡议能够显著提升中国对沿线高收入国家的进出口总额,但并不能提升对低收入国家的贸易总额,并且对内陆国家的总量效应要超过沿海国家;对进出口增速的动态增长效应主要呈现出由负转正的积极向好趋势;倡议实施后高收入、沿海国家在中国贸易结构的提升幅度要大于低收入、内陆国家,且对出口结构的政策影响及持续性要超过进口结构;倡议仅能够提升中国在内陆国家出口结构中的影响力,我国对沿线国家的贸易影响力仍然有待提高。

The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)is amultilateral and regional economic and trade cooperation platform proposed and advocated by China,which undertakes the major historical mission of political mutual trust,economic and trade cooperation,and cultural integration between China and the countries along the route of the Belt and Road.It is of great strategic significance for us to promote the formation of a new international economic order and build a community with a shared future for mankind with other countries along the route of the Belt and Road.Based on cross-country panel data from 2002 to 2018,the authors evaluate the policy effect of BRI on the bilateral trade development between China and the countries along the route of the Belt and Roadfrom the perspective of aggregate effect,growth effect and structural effect.The results show that:BRI improves China's total exports to countries along the route of the Belt and Road;it increases the proportion of countries along the route of the Belt and Road in China’s trade structure,and the trade status and importance of these countries has been improved;China’s policy dividends has been continuously released;but BRI does not increase China’s proportion in trade structure of countries along the route of the Belt and Road,and China’s growth rate of trade has not been increased;and China’s impact on trade of countries along the route of the Belt and Road is still insufficient,and the policy effect is unilateral.From the perspective of different countries,BRI can significantly increase China's total imports and exports to high-income countries along the route of the Belt and Road,but it cannot increase the total trade volume to low-income countries,and the total effect on inland countries is greater than that of coastal countries;the dynamic growth effect of the import and export growthis changing from negative to positive,which is moving steadily in a positive direction;after the implementation of BRI,the increase in China’s trade structure of high-income and coastal countries is greater than that of low-income and inland countries,and its policy impact on export structure and sustainability will exceedthat on import structure;BRI can only enhance China's influence in the export structure of inland countries,and China's trade influence on countries along the route of the Belt and Road still needs to be further improved.