济宁兖州撤市设区对农民收入的影响 ——基于合成控制法的实证研究

Impact of Turning County into District to the Fammer s Income in Yanzhou,Jining:An Empirical Study Based on Synthetic Control Method

随着新型城镇化进程加快,众多地方政府撤市设区以促进城乡一体化发展,而在全面建成小康社会目标下增加农民收入是必须完成的任务.基于2007—2017年济宁九个县市的面板数据,采用合成控制法构建兖州撤市设区对农民收入的影响效应模型.结果表明:撤市设区对当地农民收入仅有一年的短期促进效应;该效应在数据统计上具有显著性,但在时间上不具有持续性.新区前期基础设施建设中大量农村人力投入是促进农民收入增长的主要因素,基础设施建设的完成及新区与中心城市的利益冲突导致农民收入未能持续增长.撤市设区后应适当转变发展管理模式,及时引导划入城区的农民适应城市发展需求,以实现地区经济可持续发展.

With the acceleration of the new urbanization process,many local governments chose to turn county into district to promote the integration of urban and rural development.It is necessary to increase farmers income under the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way.Based on the panel data of nine counties and cities in Jining City from 2007 to 2017,the synthetic control method was introduced to analyze the impact of turning county into district on farmers income in Yanzhou,and a model for the effect of turning county into district on the income of farmers was constructed.The result shows that the effect of removing cities and setting up districts has only one year s short-term promotion effect on local farmers income,which is statistically significant but not persistent in time.A large number of infrastructure construction in the early time has promoted the growth of farmers income for which absorbed a lot of Farmers human capital investment,but the completion of infrastructure construction as well as the conflict of interests between the county and the prefecture-level cities led to their failure to sustain growth.After turning county into district,the development management mode should be changed appropriately,and the farmers who are assigned to the urban areas should be guided to adapt to the needs of urban development in time,so as to realize the sustainable development of regional economy.