基于SIS的病毒营销场景下 供应链回购契约研究

Research on Supply Chain Buy-back Contract under Viral Marketing Based on SIS Model

随着互联网用户规模的不断扩大及移动智能终端设备的普及,病毒营销网络研究成为时下的研究热点。文章采用多智能体建模仿真的方法,利用SIS模型在小世界网络上的扩散过程模拟社交用户之间的口碑营销信息传播过程,研究了由病毒营销引起的需求不确定性场景下,二级供应链系统中的企业成员在分散决策、集中决策及回购契约为供应链协调机制下的运营绩效变化情况。研究结果表明,面对病毒式产品营销引发市场需求的不确定性,需要适当提高产品的批发价格,才能保证回购契约协调机制的有效性。更重要的是,在此场景下,二级供应链成员中的制造商应更有动力去激励社交用户间建立更加紧密的关系,以此来提升供应链系统的整体利润。

With the continuous expansion of the scale of internet users and the popularity of mobile intelligent terminal devices,the research on viral marketing network has become a hot topic at present.This paper adopts the method of multi-agent modeling and simulation,and uses the SIS model to simulate the spread process of word-of-mouth marketing information among social users.In the context of demand uncertainty caused by viral marketing,this paper studies the operational performance changes of enterprise members in the secondary supply chain system under the coordination mechanism of decentralized decision making,centralized decision making and repurchase contract.The results show that in the face of the uncertainty of market demand caused by viral product marketing,it is necessary to increase the wholesale price of products to ensure the effectiveness of the repurchase contract coordination mechanism.More importantly,in this scenario,manufacturers in the secondary supply chain members should be more motivated to motivate social users to build closer relationships so as to improve the overall profitability of the supply chain system.