政府预算绩效评价及其影响因素:基于公共价值理论的实证研究

Performance Evaluation of Government Budgetand Its Influencing Factors——An Empirical Analysis Based on Public Value Theory

从公共价值理论视角出发,基于我国省际面板数据对政府预算绩效评价及其影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:绝大多数省(区、市)政府预算绩效得到不同程度的逐年改善,但整体上仍有待提高,且存在一定的地区差异;静态面板条件下,使命管理(改革累计年数)、政治管理(人大预算监督能力和预算透明度)、运作管理(预算全面性和预算规范性)对政府预算绩效均具有显著的正向影响;系统GMM估计也印证了公共价值管理对政府预算绩效的促进作用,但人大预算监督能力和预算规范性的正向影响不显著。此外,市场化程度、腐败程度等预算环境也是政府预算绩效的影响因素。研究结论可为宏观把握政府预算绩效,诊断其影响因素,加强公共价值管理以深化政府预算改革提供参考。

From the perspective of public value theory,this paper conducts an empirical analysis on government budget performance evaluation and its influencing factors based on provincial panel data.The results show that the budget performance of most provinces has been improved year by year to varying degrees,but the overall situation still needs to be improved,and there are certain regional differences.Under static panel conditions,mission management(cumulative years of reform),political management(budget supervision capability of People’s Congress and budget transparency),and operation management(budget comprehensiveness and budget normalization)all have significant and positive effects on government budget performance.System GMM estimate also confirms the role of public value management in promoting government budget performance,but the positive relationship of budget supervision capability of People’s Congress and budget normalization is not prominent.In addition,the budgetary environment,such as marketization degree and corruption,is also influencing the government budget performance.The conclusion of the study provides some reference points for macroscopically grasping government budget performance,diagnosing its influencing factors,and strengthening public value management to deepen government budget reform.